> For evolution, it's implausible.
Well, agree to disagree. It seems not only plausible, but likely.
> That's your hope, anyway. You have faith that it's true, because you have no proof of it.
Are you arguing that we have no evidence that traits detrimental to survivability decrease survivability. Or that we have no evidence that animals need to survive in order to mate?
> we have no confident path that takes us from the primordial pond to rational thought.
First, nothing is known 100%. Second, this reminds me of the eyeball argument. Third, not knowing everything is not the same as not knowing anything.
> respond to me with so much confidence that abiogenesis is somehow true
Abiogenesis is a promising hypothesis. It has the benefit of being the idea with the most practical backing. I'm sure you're aware of the experiments the produced organic compounds using conditions similar to those thought to exist on the earth early in it's history. And while I admit this is far from conclusive, it's far stronger evidence then anecdotes and unsupported claims.
> reasoning evolved to the point of reliable knowledge, and that the lack of truth perception would have been weeded out by evolution.
We can go back to the evolution of the eye. Reasoning could have started just as simply. At first it could have done something as simple as decide to move closer to the light or further from it. The ones that made the wrong choice starved or were killed by ultraviolet radiation. From this point it's just a matter of increasing complexity and testing through natural selection. Not only is this not a preposterous claim. It's reasonable and substantiated by observations of natural selection.
> that everything we know about genetic mutation is that it is 99.99999% deleterious
I think you misunderstand natural selection. Even with the percentage you provided, with billions of microbes that would still produce hundreds of positive mutations. And since all it would take is one positive mutation to drive evolution forward, you've actually shown that how likely evolution is.
> Natural selection is the mechanism of evolution whereby "life" achieves descent with modification.
yeah, you can quote it, but I still think you don't understand how the odds work.
> Since the manuals are sequential, errors are accumulated over time, and the resulting bikes change accordingly.
Except that the branches of bikes that accumulate enough over time die off and so do their manuals.
> No doubt you realize we are looking at a deteriorating picture.
Only if we consider natural section a random process.
> But now we introduce a hero: natural selection.
Exactly.
> ...duplicates code, whether good or bad... ...gives the "good" bikes back to the scribe to copy the next code...
You seem to be assuming that bad code could produce good bikes. When the judgment on if the code is good or bad is all dependent on the success of the bike. So if the bike is good, then so is the code.
> Can misspellings and selective copying really do this?
yes. I mean, you're using mechanical examples and making big jumps to make it sound unlikely. But again, this brings us back to the eye and the attempt to say that it had irreducible complexity. Which was always an argument from ignorance, but then we figured out how the eye could have evolved.
> Natural selection cannot overcome this obstacle
I don't think we are going to agree on this point. And it seems to be at the crux of the issues. We have passively observed natural selection and then documented the genetic differences after the fact. Natural selection doesn't need to read the code. The goal is creating a successful creature, so if the creature is successful, then the code is "good".