by jimwalton » Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:37 pm
> Out of all the supernatural claims ever made by human beings, what percentage do you believe are actually true?
That's a great question and one I wouldn't be confident answering. I do believe in spiritual beings and spiritual forces, but I also know that people make up a lot of stuff, and there's a bunch of mythology and superstition. I'm not one to throw out the baby with the bathwater, though; just because there are a bunch of fake stories doesn't mean there aren't plenty of real ones. Just because there are corrupt politicians doesn't mean they're all corrupt. Just because people make up many stories about Alexander the Great doesn't mean that all of the stories are false.
> Isn't it reasonable to conclude that (at least) the vast majority of supernatural claims are bogus?
I don't think that's reasonable because it's assuming the worst. If we have no grasp on the actual percentage, it's disingenuous to put a negative spin on it. That's just bias: "I don't the real amount, so I'll assume what I want it to be." That's not fair.
> Which makes the likelihood that any such claim is true to be extraordinarily unlikely, like "a million to one", right?
I didn't say the claim was extraordinarily unlikely. What I said was that scientifically speaking the odds of a miracle might be a million to one. That only means that miracles are few and far between, not that they are extraordinarily unlikely. If God exists, and if He is active in the world, then miracles are occurring. (I define a miracle as "a supernatural exception to the regularity and predictability of the universe, and therefore it is not a common occurrence." There's no reason to see it as something contrary to nature.)
> Of course, a firm believer in fairies, for example, could say: "Well, nothing in science says fairies are impossible. Though you might consider fairies bizarre, normalcy is not the arbiter of truth. If you reject the possibility of fairies a priori, that's just prejudice, etc..."
I disagree. I think science can easily weigh in on the nonexistence of fairies. Fairies are supposed to be small, visible, flighted human-like creatures with particular magical powers. We know such entities don't exist.
> So when I hear about talking snakes, pregnant virgins, and casting demons into pigs, it doesn't seem that the possibility of such occurrences has any impact on the plausibility. The likelihood of supernatural events seems very, very low.
Talking snakes. You very possibly misunderstand. It may not have been a literal snake. The Hebrew word for serpent is nahash, which is indeed the common word for snake, but it also possibly means "able to stand upright." There are all kinds of verbal possibilities here. For instance, nahash is the same root as nehoset, which means "bronze". We see that the shiny, upright snake in Number 21.9 is the same root: it was a literal thing, but a spiritual symbol. "Snake" could also be a word play, because the Hebrew word for "deceive" is very close to it, and is the same root as for magic and divination. Snakes in the ancient world were very much associated with spiritual powers, magic, and cultic rituals. So maybe that's why it was a snake and not another animal.
Back to Genesis now. So what if this "thing" (the nahash) was a spiritual power, represented to the woman as a bright creature (like bronze), speaking "spiritual wisdom," and yet was deceiving her—all of these can be expressed by the word for snake? Just a little bit of research could change the whole picture. It's very possibly like a spiritual power, and not a snake. That's why Eve would talk to it and why it would talk back.
Pregnant virgins. It's safe to assume they knew about the birds and the bees. There are several things we know about this story: (1) There was no expectation of a virginal birth. It was not perceived as part of their prophecy. They weren't looking for it and would have no reason to make it up. (2) They knew that it takes two to tango. Claiming a virgin birth would hurt their case, not help it. No one in their right mind would claim a virgin birth unless that's what happened. There are hints in Scripture that Mary suffered through life under the suspicion of being a slut. A claim of pregnant virgins was not a ticket to credibility.
Casting Demons into pigs. I mentioned that I believe in spiritual beings and forces. Demons, however, are more like amoral trouble-makers (chaos creatures) than evil beings or forces of darkness. They're more like a hurricane (just making a mess) than Satan's angels. We never read in Scripture that demons cause people to sin or motivate them in that direction. Instead, they just make a mess wherever they go.
So, how plausible are these things? They are all dependent on the reality of spiritual beings and forces. I've examined the logical and scientific evidences for theism and am convinced. The argument for the existence of God far outweighs the arguments against. And if one spirit being with spiritual power exists, it's not a stretch that others do also. If we evaluate the arguments, we discover that belief in God is neither irrational nor incoherent. In contrast, it's a quite sensible conclusion based on the evidence.
And if there is a greater plausibility that God exists than that He doesn't, then the likelihood of supernatural events seem greater than average.
> Do you think I deserve everlasting punishment because I find ancient stories about miracles difficult to believe? Does God have a "justifiable case" against me?
I believe what the Bible says: God will be fair with everyone. He knows our upbringing, motives, experiences, what we were taught, how people treated us, and what thoughts went on in our heads. It's not my place to say what you deserve. Nor am I capable of saying how honestly you have investigated or critiqued the things we're discussing here: the existence of God, the rationality of theism, or the possibility of miracles. That's something I imagine only you and God know. You'd be the better one to judge what you've been through and what God might have to say, if He exists (I obviously believe he does), when you stand in front of Him.